Electioneering in Sindh – III

In the previous two parts of this series, we have gone through possible election scenarios in Larkana, Sukkur and Shaheed Benazirabad divisions of Sindh. In this part we will discuss the situation in Mirpur Khas division. This division has three districts, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot and Tharparkar. Pakistan’s first minority MNA was elected from Mirpur Khas division in the 2018 elections.

District Mirpur Khas has two National Assembly (NA) and four provincial assembly (PA) seats. In NA 211 Mirpur Khas-I, 20 candidates are testing their luck and the most prominent among them are PPP’s Syed Aftab Shah Jillani, ex-MNA Syed Ali Nawaz Shah, Mohammad Asad Ali Junejo of PML-N, Afaque Ahmed Khan of MQM and Raja Abdul Haque. However, the actual contest is between ex-MNA Syed Ali Nawaz Shah, who is running as an independent candidate, and PPP’s Aftab Shah Jillani, who is returning to electoral politics after a decade. In 2018, Ali Nawaz won this seat by getting 75,872 votes, while his closest rival – PPP’s Hasan Ali Shah – got 67,782 votes, MQM, PTI and TLP candidates got 8,869, 4,985 and 2,353 votes respectively. On NA 212 Mirpur Khas-II, PPP’s Mir Munawar Talpur, independent candidate Ali Nawaz Shah, JUI-F’s Ghulam Qadir Khan, PTI’s Syed Mumtaz Ali Shah are prominent among 11 candidates. PPP’s Munawar Talpur, who won this seat in 2018 by getting 105,952 votes trouncing his close rival Arbab Ghulam Rahim, who got 51,208 votes, is said to be the favourite for victory on February 8, 2024. Including Hari Ram, winner of 2018 elections, 35 candidates are running for elections on PS 45 Mirpur Khas-I. MQM dominated this seat in 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections. It has fielded Zafar Ahmed Kamali while the PML-N has awarded a ticket to Abdul Hameed and PTI has nominated Aftab Hussain Qureshi. A close contest is expected in this constituency. PPP’s Zulfiqar Ali Shah, PTI’s Mumtaz Ali Shah, MQM’s Abdul Hameed are among 17 candidates on PS 46 Mirpur Khas-II. On PS 47 Mirpur Khas-III, GDA’s Mir Janullah Talpur, PPP’s Noor Ahmed Bhurgri, PTI’s Ali Raza and independent candidate Ali Nawaz Shah are contesting. A three-way fight between Mir Janullah, Ali Nawaz Shah and Noor Ahmed Bhurgri is expected. GDA’s Inayatullah, PPP’s Mir Tariq Talpur and PTI’s Mohammad Iqbal are among 15 candidates vying for victory on PS 49, Mirpur Khas-IV. Here, Noor Mohammad Bhurgri is poised to win this seat for the PPP.

On Umerkot’s only seat NA 213, a total of 19 candidates have been awarded symbols by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). A three-way fight is expected between PPP’s Nawab Yousuf Talpur, PML-N’s Mir Amanullah Talpur and PTI’s Lalchand Malhi. In the 2018 elections, Yousuf Talpur beat PTI’s Shah Mahmood Qureshi by getting 164,047 votes, while Qureshi got 104,849 votes. Although votes of minorities and disciples of Ghousia seat of Multan may help the PTI candidate put up a good fight, a split in the anti-PPP votes will benefit the PPP candidate. There are three PA seats in this district. In the 2018 elections, PPP won all PA seats and is vying to repeat the same feat again. PPP’s Sardar Shah, GDA’s Khizar Hayat, PTI’s Ali Akber Palli and independent Ali Murad Rajar are prominent among the 23 candidates running on PS 49 Umerkot-I. Sardar Shah won this seat in 2018 and would like to repeat the same but may see a tough competition by independent candidate Rajar who has the support of his community as well as of Sarwari Jamaat. On PS 50 Umerkot-II, PPP’s Ameer Ali Shah is facing 21 candidates, noticeable among those are GDA’s Ghulam Nabi Mangrio and PTI’s Lekhraj Malhi. Ameer Ali Shah beat Arbab Ghulam Rahim by securing 58,968 votes against Arbab’s 30,832 votes in the bye-election held in 2021. His father also defeated Arbab Ghulam Rahim in the general elections held in 2018. Chances of victory of Ameer Ali Shah seem bright. On PS 51 Umerkot-III, 10 candidates are in the running; however, the main contest is between PPP’s Taimur Talpur and GDA’s Dost Mohammad Memon. History is on the side of Talpur.

Once the Arbab family was seen as the ‘king’ of Tharparkar district, but in 2018, PPP routed and ended their dominance by winning all but one seat. On NA 214 Tharparkar-I, a total of 11 candidates are contesting. PTI’s Shah Mahmood Qureshi, PPP’s Ameer Ali Shah Jeelani and Abdul Razzaque are notable among them. In 2018, the father of PPP candidate beat Qureshi by securing 80,047 votes while his opponent bagged 72,884 votes. In 2018, Qureshi was supported by the Arbabs. However, this time they have fielded their local ally Rahmoon, so the benefit of a three-way contest may go in the favour of the PPP candidate. On another seat – NA 215 Tharparkar-II – 20 candidates are in the field: GDA’s Arbab Ghulam Rahim, PPP’s Mahesh Kumar Malani and PTI’s Mehar-Un-Nisa Baloch are prominent among those candidates. In the last elections, the PPP candidate beat GDA’s Arbab Zakaullah by a margin of 20,000 votes. Although an interesting contest is expected on this seat, the split in anti-PPP votes between GDA and PTI may favour PPP’s Malani. On PS 52 Tharparkar-I, 11 candidates are contesting: GDA’s Sher Khan and PPP’s Dost Muhammad are the main contenders. In 2018, GDA won this seat. On PS 53 Tharparkar-II, GDA’s Arbab Anwar Jabbar, PPP’s Muhamad Qasim Soomro, JUI-F’s Umer Farooq, PTI’s Pehlaj Rai and 10 other candidates are pitched against each other. In 2018, Qasim Soomro won this seat. Soomro and GDA candidate are the main contestants here. On PS 54 Tharparkar-III, among 12 aspirants, PPP’s Faqeer Sher Muhammad Bilalani, GDA’s Arbab Togachi Fawad Razzaq, PPP’s Sher Muhammad Bilalani, PTI’s Lajpat Rai are the main competitors. Bilalani defeated Arbab by a difference of 21,000 votes. Although 18 candidates are in the race, it is a contest between a family on PS 55 Tharparkar-IV. Arbab Lutifullah of PPP is in the against Arbab Zakaullah. Voters will decide who will be the new king of Tharparkar.