The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 but warned that there was still “extraordinary uncertainty” about the outlook.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook forecast, the IMF projects global growth at 5.5%, which is higher than their previous forecast in October. Global growth will moderate to 4.2% growth in 2022, the IMF said.

As per the forecast, Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the ongoing year will stand at 1.5% that it shares with Nigeria, while neighbouring India and China are likely to stand at staggering 11.5% and 8.1%, respectively.

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GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.

Malaysia’s growth is likely to stand at 7%, Turkey: 6%, Spain: 5.9%, France: 5.5%, the United States (US) 5.1%, Indonesia: 4.8%, the United Kingdom (UK): 4.5%, Mexico: 4.3%, Brazil: 3.6%, Canada: 3.6%, Germany: 3.5%, Japan: 3.1%, Russia: 3%, Italy: 3%, while the GDP growth of Saudi Arabia has been predicted to stand at 2.6%.

The upgrade for this year reflects the positive effects from the start to vaccinations in some countries, additional fiscal support in the US and Japan, and at least a partial return to business and consumer normality as the health crisis wanes.

“Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens,” said IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath in a blog post accompanying the updated forecast.

The global economy contracted by 3.5% in 2020, the worst peacetime contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the agency said.

Close to 90 million people are expected to enter extreme poverty in 2020 and 2021, reversing the trends of the past two decades, the IMF said.

Altogether, the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the global economy $22 trillion over 2020-2025 relative to pre-pandemic projected levels.