IMF predicts modest 3.5% growth for Pakistan amid global economic uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a 3.5 per cent growth rate for Pakistan’s economy in the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), slightly below the government’s target of 3.6 per cent.

This comes after Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.4 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24, missing the government’s target of 3.5 per cent.

Pakistan’s economic challenges are compounded by chronic mismanagement, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions, and severe flooding in 2022.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) update warns of modest global growth over the next two years, influenced by cooling activity in the US, stabilization in Europe, and stronger consumption and exports from China, but significant risks remain.

Globally, the IMF has maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.2 per cent and slightly increased its 2025 forecast to 3.3 per cent. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has expressed concern over these tepid growth rates. The US growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 2.6 per cent, reflecting slower consumption, while the 2025 forecast remains at 1.9 per cent due to a cooling labor market and moderated spending.

The IMF has raised China’s 2024 growth forecast to 5.0 per cent, reflecting a rebound in private consumption and strong exports, but recent data showing lower-than-expected GDP growth poses a downside risk.

The IMF also highlighted persistent risks to inflation due to high services prices and wage growth in labor-intensive sectors, alongside potential trade and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate price pressures. Additionally, the IMF warned of the impact of economic policy shifts from upcoming elections, which could lead to increased protectionism and fiscal irresponsibility.

The IMF advised policymakers to restore price stability, gradually ease monetary policy, rebuild fiscal buffers, and implement policies to promote trade and productivity growth.