A Stockholm Inter­national Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that India possesses more nuclear weapons than its arch-rival Pakistan.

Since the nuclear tests in 1998 that officially declared both countries nuclear-armed nations, it has been reported for the first time that India has surpassed Pakistan in the number of nuclear warheads, though by a slim margin of two warheads.

Traditionally, Western assessments, including those from SIPRI and the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), have shown Pakistan maintaining a slight lead over India in terms of nuclear arsenal size, generally by a margin of five to ten weapons. However, a recent report based on assessments for 2023 shows a marginal lead for India, reports Baqir Sajjad Syed from Dawn.

Pakistani warheads

As of January 2024, Pakistan, according to SIPRI estimates, maintained its nuclear arsenal at around 170 warheads, consistent with its previous year’s estimates. These warheads are distributed across Pakistan’s emerging nuclear triad, which includes aircraft, ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles.

Indian warheads

Indian nuclear arsenal as of January 2024, according to SIPRI, comprises approximately 172 nuclear weapons, showing a minor increase from the previous year.

These weapons are part of India’s developing nuclear triad, which includes aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) report estimated that India spent $2.7bn on nuclear programme in 2023, which equalled an expenditure of $5,057 per minute.

Global Estimates of Nuclear Warheads

The report revealed that all nine nuclear-armed countries, the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel, are modernising their arsenals and deploying new nuclear-capable weapon systems.

Globally, the total number of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,121, with 9,585 of these in military stockpiles ready for potential use. About 2,100 warheads are maintained in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, primarily by Russia and the US, with China recently joining this high-alert grouping.

Questions over transparency of report

SIPRI’s assessment is primarily based on satellite imagery of uranium enrichment facilities and plutonium production plants. The specifics of the methodologies and metrics used by SIPRI and IPFM remain largely undisclosed, posing questions about the precision and transparency of these estimates.