Pakistan’s major industrial production drops by 14.37% in May, marking ninth consecutive decline

Pakistan’s Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector suffered a substantial year-on-year decline of 14.37 per cent in May, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

This contraction represents the ninth consecutive month of contraction for the country’s major industries during the outgoing fiscal year FY23. The primary cause behind this downturn can be attributed to a slowdown in the production of export-oriented textile and clothing sectors.

The consequences of this decline in large industries are evident in the form of a significant number of job losses. The reduction in production capacity has unfortunately resulted in numerous individuals becoming unemployed.

These statistics shed light on the challenges faced by Pakistan’s manufacturing sector and raise concerns about the overall economic performance of the country in the coming months.

In May, the growth of LSM experienced a decline compared to the same month last year. The decline in April was 21 per cent, which is lower than the decline of 25 per cent in March, 11.6 per cent in February, and 7.9 per cent in January. In December 2022, there was a slight decrease of 3.51 per cent.

In November 2022, there was a negative growth of 5.49 per cent, while in October 2022, it declined by 7.7 per cent. In September 2022, there was a decrease of 2.27 per cent compared to the same month last year. In August, there was a slight increase of 0.30 per cent after a decline of 1.67 per cent in July, which marked the first month of the current fiscal year.

Between July and May, LSM also recorded a negative growth of 9.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

In FY22, the LSM expanded by 11.7 per cent year-on-year. The production estimate for LSM industries was based on the new base year of 2015-16.

During May, the production of 16 sectors shrank, while only four sectors experienced a marginal increase. The textile sector’s production decreased by 25.97 per cent compared to the previous year. The major negative growth was observed in yarn (29.89 per cent) and cloth (17.49 per cent), while nominal growth was reported in the production of other textile products.

On the positive side, the production of garments grew by 12.86 per cent in May. Its performance remained positive in the first 10 months, except for February when it experienced a decline.

In the food group, wheat and rice production decreased by 0.36 per cent and starch and its products by 2.15 per cent. However, there was an increase of 39.99 per cent in the production of blended tea, 24.45 per cent in cooking oil, and 23.80 per cent in vegetable ghee.

In May, petroleum products witnessed a negative growth of 21.85 per cent, primarily due to a decline in the production of petrol and high-speed diesel. Almost all other petroleum products experienced a slowdown, except for jet fuel, kerosene, jute, and batching oil. The auto sector also suffered a 68.60 per cent slump in May, as the production of almost all types of vehicles declined.

The production of iron and steel decreased by 5.83 per cent in May, mainly due to a decline of 15.09 per cent in billets/ingots, while non-metallic mineral products saw a marginal growth of 0.53 per cent. However, chemical products experienced a negative growth of 15.44 per cent in May compared to the previous year.

In May, the production of pharmaceutical products decreased by 38.61 per cent, rubber products by 5.81 per cent, and fertilisers by 13.31 per cent compared to the previous year.