Today’s by-elections: Your candidates and predictions

How many seats are there in Punjab by-elections?

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) de-seated 25 dissident members of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in May. Out of these, five seats were reserved. Later, ECP notified PTI members on all five reserved seats while there will be by-elections on the rest of the 20 seats today (Sunday, July 17).

Why is it important?

The results of the by-elections will decide the fate of Punjab Chief Minister (CM) Hamza Shehbaz as the Supreme Court ordered a run-off poll for CM Punjab on July 22, five days after the by-polls are held. The magic number required to be the Punjab CM is 186.

Four Lahore Constituencies:

There are a total of four constituencies in Lahore.

1- PP-158

In PP-158, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) Rana Ahsan Sharafat will contest against PTI’s Mian Akram Usman. The constituency falls under NA-129, where PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq is a Member of the National Assembly (MNA). PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s former close aide Aleem Khan won the constituency as a PTI candidate in 2018 but in these elections, he will not contest and will instead support the PML-N candidate.

Areas: Garhi Shahu, Dharampura, Gulberg, Jail Road

2- PP-167

In PP-167, PML-N’s Nazir Chohan will contest against PTI’s Shabbir Gujjar. In 2018, Chohan won the constituency as a PTI candidate. The constituency falls under NA-133, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik is MNA.

Areas: Mainly Johar Town

3- PP-168

In PP-168, PML-N’s Malik Asad Ali Khokhar will be against PTI’s Malik Nawaz Awan. In the 2018 general elections, Khokhar won from this constituency. The constituency falls under NA-133 and NA-131, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik and PML-N’s Saad Rafique are MNAs respectively.

Areas: Walton, Cavalry, Kot Lakhpat, Kainchi

4- PP-170

In PP-170, it will be PML-N’s Muhammad Amin Zulqarnain versus PTI’s Zaheer Abbas Khokhar. Previously, in 2018, Zulqarnain won this constituency as a PTI candidate. The constituency falls under NA-134, where PML-N’s Rana Mubashir Iqbal is MNA.

Areas: Wapda Town, Valencia, Township, and some rural areas of Lahore

Who will win Lahore?

Talking to The Current, senior journalist Majid Nizami said that the PTI claims that it will win three seats out of the four in Lahore in the upcoming Punjab by-polls. They think that the PML-N will win PP-168. Similarly, the PML-N also claims that it will win three out of four seats in Lahore. They think that PTI will win PP-170. According to Nizami, it is quite likely that both parties will win two seats each. From PML-N, Khokhar in PP-168 and Nazir Chohan from PP-167 are the strong candidates. From PTI, Mian Akram Usman from PP-158 and Zaheer Abbas Khokhar from PP-170 are likely to give a tough time to their competitors.

5- Multan: PP-217

In Multan, PML-N’s Salman Naeem is standing against former Foreign Minister (FM) Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s son Zain Hussain Qureshi. The constituency was previously won by Naeem in 2018 when he defeated Shah Mahmood and became a Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA).

According to Majid Nizami, Naeem is likely to become MPA again this time.

6- Sahiwal: PP-202

Three candidates are contesting against each other in PP-202. From PML-N, there is Malik Nauman Ahmad Langrial who is fighting against PTI’s Major Ghulam Sarwar and Independent Candidate Adil Saeed Gujjar. The constituency falls under NA-149, where PTI’s Murtaza Iqbal is MNA. PTI has a chance of winning this seat.

Areas: Chichawatni Tehsil

7- Bahawalnagar: PP-237

Under this constituency, there are two candidates. PML-N’s Fida Hussain Wattoo will fight PTI’s Syed Aftab Raza, who is contesting for the first time. It is pertinent to mention that Wattoo earlier won this constituency in 2018 as an independent candidate. He later joined the PTI. Despite the fact that in the past Wattoo was elected MPA thrice in a row, Majid Nizami says that there is going to be a tough competition between these two.

Areas: Minchinabad

8- Lodhran: PP-224

PTI’s Amir Iqbal Shah will contest against PML-N’s Zawar Hussain Warraich, who won the constituency in the 2018 general elections. Zawar is also considered close to Jahangir Tareen. This seat is likely to fall in the hands of the PTI.

Areas: Dunyapur

9- Lodhran: PP-228

PML-N’s Nazir Ahmed Baloch, PTI’s Captain Retired Izzat Javed Khan and Independent Candidate Pir Syed Rafi Bukhari are contesting. Baloch already won the constituency in 2018. The constituency falls under NA-161, where PTI’s Mian Muhammad Shafiq is MNA. Reports indicate that the PTI is in a tight position here. The tough competition will take place between Pir Syed and Baloch.

Areas: Rajapur

10- Rawalpindi: PP-7

PML-N’s Raja Sagheer Ahmed who won the constituency in the 2018 elections is going to fight against PTI’s Lt. Col. Shabbir Awan. The constituency falls under NA-57, where PTI’s Sadaqat Ali Abbasi is MNA. In this constituency, the PML-N is ahead of PTI.

Areas: Kahuta and Kallar Syedan

11- DG Khan: PP-288

The son of PTI MNA Amjad Farooq Khan Khosa, Abdul Qadir Khosa, is contesting on the ticket of the PML-N. He will be against PTI’s Saif-ud-din-Khosa who is ahead in the race.

Areas: Tehsil DG Khan, Shah sadar din and Ghaus Abad.

12- Khushab: PP-83

In PP-83, PML-N’s Ameer Haider Sangha is going to lock horns with PTI’s Hasan Aslam Awan and Independent candidate Malik Asif Bha. In this constituency, there is going to be a three-way fight.

Areas: Jauharabad, Khushab city and Hadali

13- Layyah: PP-282

Tahir Randhawa, on a PML-N ticket, is now fighting against PTI candidate Qaiser Abbas Magsi. Magsi contested the 2008 and 2013 elections on a PML-N ticket and won as MPA. Despite this, Randhawa is ahead of Magsi.

Areas: Chowk Azam and Chaubara Tehsil

14- Muzaffargarh: PP-272

Syeda Zehra Bukhari will be against PTI’s Moazzam Khan Jatoi. Zehra is the wife of PTI MNA Basit Sultan Bukhari and she won in 2018 from this constituency. Meanwhile, Jatoi is a former minister and MNA. Syeda Zehra has a stronghold.

Areas: Shaher Sultan

15- Muzaffargarh: PP-273

PML-N’s Muhammad Sibtain Raza is going to be up against PTI’s Yasir Arfat Jatoi. Raza won the constituency as a PTI candidate in the previous elections. However, this time Jatoi is likely to become MPA.

Areas: Ali pur Tehsil

16- Bhakkar: PP-90

PML-N’s Saeed Akhbar Khan Nawani will fight against PTI’s Irfan Ullah Khan Niazi who just joined the party. Nawani won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI. Here, Nawani is said to be ahead of Niazi.

Areas: Darya Khan Tehsil

17- Faisalabad: PP-97

The former Provincial Minister in Punjab, PML-N’s Ajmal Cheema is up against PTI’s Ali Afzal Sahi in Faisalabad. Although, Cheema won the constituency in 2018, Sahi is likely to win this seat. Sahi is the son of the former speaker of the Punjab Assembly Muhammad Afzal Sahi.

Areas: Chak Jhumra Tehsil

18- Jhang: PP-125

PML-N’s Faisal Hayat Jabboana will be competing against PTI’s Mian M. Azam Cheela and Independent candidate Iftikhar Ahmad Khan Baloch. Jabboana won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI. PML-N candidate is likely to leave his contenders behind.

Areas: Athara Hazari Tehsil

19- Jhang: PP-127

In PP-127, PML-N Mehr Aslam Bharwana is going to fight against M. Nawaz Bhawarana. In 2018, Aslam Bharwana won as an independent candidate. There is going to be a tough competition between the two.

Areas: Jhang Tehsil

20- Sheikhupura: PP-140

PTI’s Khurram Virk is going to fight against Mian Khalid Mehmood who won the MPA seat from this constituency in 2018. The constituency falls under NA-121, where PML-N’s Javed Latif is MNA. However, Virk is likely to win this seat. It is pertinent to mention that according to Majid Nizami, a TLP candidate is also contesting against these two and has a pretty strong position.

Areas: Sheikhupura city