Pakistan has run out of water, experts say

With the Kharif season set to begin in a few days, water experts are struggling to plan irrigation supplies as Pakistan is grappling with an alarming water shortage.

According to reports, an official stated, “There is no water in the dams, river flows have decreased, and the snow reserves in the mountains are not providing the expected runoff.”

This situation is expected to have a severe impact on crop production.

The Advisory Committee of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has decided that water will only be supplied for drinking purposes during April. A further assessment will be conducted before deciding on future allocations.

This is an unusual move, as IRSA has historically managed water distribution for entire seasons in two or three phases rather than making monthly decisions.

Officials revealed that amid the lack of stored water in all three major reservoirs, discharge from rim stations fell short by 51 percent, and shortages exceeded 60 percent by the time water reached provincial canal heads.

In its advisory meeting, IRSA approved water availability for April based on uncertain climate patterns and weather forecasts provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The forecast indicates a 43 percent system shortfall.

The meeting, chaired by IRSA Chairman and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa representative Sahibzada Muhammad Shabbir, also reviewed water availability projections for the entire Kharif season, spanning April 1 to September 30. High-ranking officials, including all IRSA members, chief engineering advisors, and provincial irrigation secretaries, attended the meeting.

A review of the Rabi season (October–March) indicates that the overall system faced an 18 percent shortfall by 20 March, compared to the anticipated 16 percent deficit.

The PMD has predicted below-average rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures in both the northern and southern regions of the country from April to June.

Additionally, the snowfall in Sindh and Jhelum’s water basins has been significantly below normal. This year, only 26.8 inches of snowfall was recorded in these regions, compared to the usual 49.7 inches.

Both Sindh and Punjab have agreed to allocate water only for April, allowing them to manage their immediate irrigation needs. The situation will be reassessed after one month.

However, Sindh has raised objections to the controversial Three-Tier Water Distribution Formula and demanded that water allocation follow the Water Accord’s Paragraph 2. Under this condition, the estimated water shortage in April could exceed 55 percent.

The Kharif season runs from April to September, with major crops including rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, and mash. With the current water crisis, the production of these crops could be at serious risk.