Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement to resume loan

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) extended the total loan size to $7 billion on Thursday and announced a staff-level agreement on the completion of two unfinished programme assessments, but cautioned Pakistan to be prepared to take any extra measures.

“The IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) with the Pakistan authorities for the conclusion of the combined seventh and eighth reviews of the EFF-supported program. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board. Subject to Board approval, about $1,177 million (SDR 894 million) will become available, bringing total disbursements under the program to about $4.2 billion,” IMF said in a statement.

The statement added, “Additionally, in order to support program implementation and meet the higher financing needs in FY23, as well as catalyze additional financing, the IMF Board will consider an extension of the EFF until end-June 2023 and an augmentation of access by SDR 720 million that will bring the total access under the EFF to about $7 billion.”

IMF team leader Nathan Porter noted in a statement “Pakistan is at a challenging economic juncture. A difficult external environment combined with procyclical domestic policies fueled domestic demand to unsustainable levels.”

According to him, the ensuing economic overheating reduced reserve buffers, increased inflation, and resulted in significant fiscal and external deficits in FY22.

The statement continued, “Policy priorities include the consistent implementation of the FY23 budget, which aims to reduce the government’s significant borrowing needs by targeting an underlying primary surplus of 0.4 per cent of GDP, underpinned by current spending restraint and extensive revenue mobilisation efforts targeted particularly at higher-income taxpayees.”

According to Express Tribune, the international lender claimed that due to poor implementation of the previously agreed upon plan, the circular debt (CD) flow in the power sector is predicted to increase significantly to about Rs850 billion in FY22, exceeding programme targets, endangering the viability of the sector, and resulting in frequent power outages.

To improve the situation in the electricity sector and reduce load shedding, the authorities are committed to resuming reforms, which crucially include the timely adjustment of the power tariff, including the delayed yearly rebasing and quarterly adjustments.

According to the IMF, Pakistan’s headline inflation rate hit 20 per cent in June, impacting the most vulnerable people the most. The recent monetary policy boost was reasonable and necessary in this regard, and future monetary policy must be designed to ensure that inflation is slowly brought down to the medium-term goal of 5-7 per cent.

“Importantly, to enhance monetary policy transmission, the rates of the two major refinancing schemes EFS and LTFF (which have over recent months been raised by 700 bps and 500 bps respectively) will continue to be linked to the policy rate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help cushion activity and rebuild reserves to more prudent levels,” it added.

The unconditional cash transfer (UCT) Kafalat scheme reached nearly 8 million households during FY22, with a permanent increase in the stipend to Rs14,000 per family, while a one-time cash transfer of Rs2,000 (Sasta Fuel Sasta Diesel, SFSD) was made to approximately 8.6 million families to lessen the effects of the inflationary crisis.

The government has increased the BISP budget for FY23 from Rs250 billion to Rs364 billion in order to expand the SFSD programme to more non-BISP, lower-middle class beneficiaries and to accommodate 9 million extra families into the BISP safety net.

The statement further stated that in order to maintain the effectiveness of the anti-corruption agencies (including the National Accountability Bureau) in investigating and prosecuting corruption cases, the authorities are putting in place a strong electronic asset declaration system.

According to the SLA for the combined seventh and eighth reviews, consistent execution of the defined policies will support the development of growth that is more equitable and sustainable.

“The authorities should nonetheless stand ready to take any additional measures necessary to meet program objectives, given the elevated uncertainty in the global economy and financial markets,” the statement concluded.