The recent ban on imports might barely make a dent

On Thursday, May 19th, 2022, the federal cabinet issued a list of 41 items which will be banned from being imported for two months. This is in an attempt to address the current account deficit. The list of products is banned from being imported into the country, which means that essentially any shops or restaurants which rely on using these products will be forced to find local alternatives.

These products will be banned regardless of what branding or packaging they use and only on the basis of whether the specific product is imported or not. Even products which are imported from abroad but packaged locally, will now be banned.

Economists, university professors and business journalists took to Twitter to analyze and assess the merits and demerits of this decision. The discussion around luxury products and the fact that a lot of products which are labelled as “luxury items” are actually essential. Sanitary imports, valued at $16.4m are wrongly categorized as non-essential and although local alternatives also exist but it is definitions like these which disallow such decisions to be founded in research and expertise.

The valuation of these imports which was published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, was being quoted to ridicule the decision by many. What’s interesting to note is that most brands which appear to be entirely local, import a major chunk of their supply and will now be forced to smuggle goods instead.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but someone clubbed animal feed ($68m) with pet food ($5m) — and now suddenly we may have a feed crisis, b/c animal feed isn't really a luxury and is used as a key agri input. Someone somewhere needs to amend the SRO.

— Ammar Khan (@rogueonomist) May 19, 2022

Only from the data shared by PBS it becomes clear that for the fiscal year 2022, June to March, the total value of petroleum imports was $11 billion, while the total value of banning all these non-essential “luxury” items is a total $984 million, which forms only about 8.9% of the total value of petroleum imports.

In conversation with Profit Magazine’s Ariba Shahid, she clarified that this would still prove to be a largely fruitless move since the most significant chunk of the import bill is still being used up to run the energy sector without any thought being given to the humongous fuel subsidies . “For a very long time the State Bank of Pakistan has been talking about how if we remove the oil component from it, the current account deficit is improving, which is true and basically means that people are not spending money to buy other items and most of the import bill is petrol and soy bean oil.”

This is patchwork economics, and unlikely to work

It is important to understand the deeper sources of structural imbalances

For example, one major source is unproductive sectors generating demand for foreign goods https://t.co/5bv5q2kKqS

— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) May 19, 2022

Economists Ammar Khan and Atif R Mian also took to Twitter to analyze this decision of “patchwork economics”. Commenting on this unsustainable gap in Pakistan’s balance of payment, on April 15th, 2022 during a discussion on Pakistan’s economy at Princeton University, he explains that for Pakistan to grow it is a necessary condition for Pakistan to deal with this problem and digs deeper into the structure of the economy. He particularly takes apart urban land reforms, the necessity to levy a capital gains tax on speculative real estate transactions and analyzes how Pakistan is not even economically stable enough to grow at the rate of India and Bangladesh and it is primarily due to the elite capture of the economy that disallows the economy to attempt to fix its loopholes.

Echoing similar sentiments, Ariba Shahid explained that due to a weaker economy, the import bill is not as significantly high due to a reduced demand pull because of a lowered purchasign power and hence banning these products will be insignificant and might barely make a dent in the current account deficit. “The need of the hour is to reverse the fuel subsidy,” says Shahid, “This decision will swell up the grey market economy and smuggling will increase.”