Inflation in Pakistan is projected to decelerate significantly in May 2024, with the year-on-year (YoY) rate expected to drop to approximately 13.9 per cent. This sharp slowdown is attributed to a notable decline in monthly prices, aided by a favorable base effect.
Monthly inflation is forecasted to decrease by 1.4 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of decline. This figure is significantly lower than the average monthly increase of 1.35 per cent observed over the past 12 months.
As a result, the average yearly inflation for the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024 (11MFY24) is anticipated to be 25.1 per cent YoY, compared to 29 per cent YoY in the same period of the previous fiscal year (FY23).
The primary driver behind the decline in monthly inflation is a substantial 440 basis points (bps) drop in the Food Index. This reduction is mainly due to lower prices of essential food items such as onions, tomatoes, chicken, and wheat. Additionally, the Transport Index is expected to decrease due to falling fuel prices.
Looking ahead, if consumer prices increase by an average of 0.5 per cent per month, the annual inflation rate is projected to decline to about 7.4 per cent by the end of December 2024. With a 1 per cent monthly increase, the annual inflation rate would fall to approximately 11.7 per cent.
If the monthly increase matches the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent, the annual inflation rate will stand at 14.8 per cent by December 2024.
The following chart outlines the projected yearly inflation trajectory based on monthly inflation rates of 0.5 per cent, 1 per cent, and the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent.
