According to BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, the Pakistani rupee is expected to depreciate to as low as Rs350 against the US dollar by the end of 2024. Similarly, Topline Securities Ltd., a brokerage firm, predicts a fall to Rs324.
Despite government efforts to combat smuggling and speculation, the local currency has already experienced a 20 per cent devaluation against the dollar, with analysts predicting a continued decline, as reported by Bloomberg.
John Ashbourne, a global economist at BMI in London, remarked, “This appears to be a currency that is set to adjust downwards.”
“It will be very hard in the long term to convince people to use the official rate if parallel markets offer more value for a dollar,” added Ashbourne.
He further stated, “The authorities can push against the tide for a certain amount of time, but they are not able to do that sustainably.”
As of Tuesday, the local unit closed at Rs285.52 against the dollar in the interbank market.
According to experts, Pakistan’s currency is poised to conclude 2023 as Asia’s worst-performing country in terms of currency performance.
In a temporary recovery effort in September, when the rupee was at a record low of Rs300, the caretaker set-up initiated aggressive measures against the illegal purchase and sale of the greenback at a premium exchange rate.
However, experts caution that this recovery is expected to be short-lived.