Pakistan’s inflation is expected to record its sharpest month-on-month increase in five months in September, driven largely by higher fuel and electricity costs.
According to brokerage Topline Securities, consumer prices are projected to rise 1.3% from August, while annual inflation is expected to ease to between 10.25% and 10.75%, down from the official 11.15% recorded in August.
The brokerage attributed the monthly increase primarily to rising energy costs. It forecast fuel prices to climb 6.5% during September, while the Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas category was projected to increase 1.78%.
Electricity prices alone were estimated to have risen 9.58% from August, reflecting higher charges passed on to consumers through power bills.
Food prices were expected to register a more modest 0.81% monthly increase, according to Topline.
Higher prices for onions and fresh vegetables were likely to be partly offset by declines in tomato and egg prices.
The report also linked the rise in energy costs to disruptions in regional oil shipments following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran starting February.
While Topline also revised upwards its inflation outlook for the fiscal year ending June 2027, it now expects average inflation to exceed 8.5%, compared with its previous forecast of between 8% and 8.5%, if international oil prices remain between $90 and $100 a barrel.
The higher inflation outlook comes as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) seeks to balance price stability with economic recovery.
The central bank has kept key interest rate at 11.5%, targeting medium-term inflation of 5% to 7%.
